Step by step to successful betting
In the previous part, we introduced our tutorial “Step by step to successful betting”. We highlighted specific topics that we will focus on in individual chapters of the tutorial. This time, in the second part, we will focus on the first important topic. Do you know what a good bet is? Have you heard of the concept of “spread betting”? Let me explain what it means.
Understanding the concept of advantageous betting
It is very important to fully understand and grasp what a profitable bet is. This is one of the conditions to get on the right track towards successful betting. You must have heard statements like “This bet cannot lose. This team can’t lose”. Such statements are often heard in games where there is a clear favourite, valued at odds of 1.30 (with a probability of at least 77%; more information can be found in the chapter Mathematical Basics of Betting). Of course, these strong statements are not unacceptable, but they do directly or indirectly undermine the bettor’s morale. This is especially true since such statements make it impossible to successfully seek the advantage of a bet.
Let us ask a fundamental question: can the probability be higher than the odds offered by the bookmakers for the favourite to win? As long as we keep this fundamental question in mind, we will be moving in the right direction.
But let us return to the above statements about the winner of the match. Often, such statements about the wins or losses of particular teams are based on the fact that we ourselves want a certain outcome, which makes the bet profitable in our eyes. In such a case, the term “favourable” is just a common expression that does not capture its true meaning. The true advantage is hidden in bets with odds higher than the actual probability of the outcome of the event. It requires a good knowledge and insight into the event to find such odds. There must also be a lightning reaction to use such bets at the best odds available, as well as sound risk management based on the statistics gathered.
Despite all the above, most bettors have not fully mastered, or are unwilling to master, the concept of a favourable bet. This means that there is an opportunity for a minority of punters who want to take advantage of this advantage.
In the next section we will look at how bookmakers create odds. Step by step, we will understand how to get the best result when placing bets.